Authored by: Dr. Yanshu Li In the third quarter of 2024, Georgia’s timber markets showed mixed trends. Stumpage prices for major timber products in South Georgia, except for hardwood pulpwood, fell from the last quarter. Pine sawtimber and pine chip-n-saw (CNS) prices in the region dropped significantly after three consecutive quarters of growth. Meanwhile, sawtimber prices in North Georgia continued to rise modestly. According to TimberMart-South (2024), the average pine sawtimber price in South Georgia was $26.60/ton, down 20% from Q2 and 11% year-over-year. Pine CNS prices fell over 20% to about $20/ton, a 10% decrease year-over-year. Mixed hardwood sawtimber the region averaged just over $31/ton, down 9% from the last quarter but still 8% higher than a year ago. Pine pulpwood prices were slightly above $15.50/ton, down 2% from the last quarter but 6% higher year-over-year. Hardwood pulpwood held steady at $8-9/ton. In North Georgia, the average pine sawtimber price rose to about $24-25/ton in Q3 2024, up 20% year-over-year and the highest since Q1 2023. Pine CNS averaged over $18/ton, up 7% from the last quarter and 25% year-over-year. Mixed hardwood sawtimber prices of the region averaged over $35/ton, up 21% year-over-year. Pine and hardwood pulpwood prices stayed around $8/ton. The sharp decline in South Georgia’s pine sawtimber prices was mainly due to curtailment and downtime at several lumber mills, including reduced hours at Canfor’s mills in Moultrie, GA and Estill, SC, indefinite curtailments at Interfor’s mills in Meldrim, GA and Summerville, SC, and temporary production cuts at six other Interfor mills in South Georgia. Weak market demand was frequently cited as the reason behind these cutbacks. Persistent inflation and the high-interest-rate environment over the past few years have eroded housing affordability and slowed down recovery in single-family housing starts, weakening the demand for softwood lumber products. Slower growth in remodeling and repairs also played a role. Lumber producers adjusted output to match demand and maintain profitability. The impact of the Fed’s September rate cut, along with possible additional cuts later in 2024, on the housing market and lumber demand remains to be seen. It is important to note that the impact of Hurricane Helene on Georgia’s timber market is not reflected in the prices reported here. The hurricane made landfall on September 26, causing severe damage to Georgia’s forest sector. It caused significant timber losses, mill power outage, challenges in salvaging and processing damaged timber within limited timeframes, and reforestation needs. These immediate disruptions, along with possible mid- to long-term effects on timber supply, could have substantial impacts on local timber markets. Typically, timber prices fall initially due to an influx of salvaged timber and rise again once that supply is absorbed, and long-term supply disruptions emerge. Keep in mind that timber markets are largely local. Timber prices for a particular timber stand are influenced by timber species, quality and size of the trees, site accessibility, local timber inventory, mill types and capacities, logging capabilities, transportation capacity, and more.
